TwoKinds [of] data

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Technic[Bot]
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#46 Post by Technic[Bot] »

So well turns out i was wrong. After a thorough analysis i realized my last experiment was wrong. Simple error, I was stupid and I switched the tags at some point under the analysis.
I apologize for that and here are the corrected versions of prior graphs.
Spoiler!
Image
Spoiler!
Image
As you can se here the trend is completely opposite. The number of sketches has exploded over time but actually the number of questionable sketches has decreased over time. Which is interesting and a bit counter intuitive I could have sworn that ever since patreon crackdown on NSFW works the number of actually questionable sketches increased but that idea is completely squashed by the data.
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aitaituo
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#47 Post by aitaituo »

What's the difference in methodology exactly?

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#48 Post by Technic[Bot] »

aitaituo wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:22 am What's the difference in methodology exactly?
In a nutshell I inverted the labels at that point so all questionable sketches were marked as safe and viceversa, If you see the plots now is basically the same but the labels are inverted.
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#49 Post by Technic[Bot] »

So I got a new idea, well not really had been in the backburner a couplle weeks already. Hopefully this one is less wrong than the last time hehe.

Anyhow as you may have notices I am interested to gauge the relative interest in the comic over time, for fun and profit. This is relatively hard as I have only been part of the community, what? 3 years now? Time flies... Anyhow compared to the 15 years of the comic is very little to form an opinion on the subject. That being said this forum has been around for little over a decade now, earliest post i can find is from 2008 and exposes lots of interesting information, namely number of replies and views each topic has.
So after asking permissions to admins I scrapped the forums "Comic discusssion" section and dropped any topic that did not had "Comic for <date>" as its title. And plotted number of replies and views over time. After some massaging, early format is unconsistent and the earliest comics did not even had a title. I came to these graphs:
X-axis is date, y axis is replies or views respectively. Events or extrema are marked with a yellow triangle. These are topic when number of replies/views exceeded 2 standard deviations from the mean, or in other words these are topics that got a lot more attention than the average. Mean is marked with solid orange line and the one standard deviation lines are marked with dashed orange.
Spoiler! Topics replies over time
Image
For the curious these are the comic pages, well dates, of the events:
Spoiler! Outstanding dates
For replies Mean: 72.27458256029685 Std dev 50.727483912849394
Found, 10 events in the replies category
date replies
2009-10-16 17:20:00 428
2010-03-03 17:03:00 406
2009-06-30 10:56:00 290
2014-05-21 12:48:00 266
2008-11-01 02:41:00 260
2015-02-11 20:36:00 242
2010-04-14 16:41:00 226
2009-02-03 23:07:00 203
2008-12-15 13:28:00 191
2009-05-04 12:14:00 191
Used date of posting on the forum. Exact day may be one or two days off.
Sorry for not providing a title, back then most comics lacked one.

For those curious top event is Laura's death and the one in the middle is unsurprisingly Keith and Nat first kiss , the one next to it is Nat going catatonic
For reference Brutus death is the small peak at the rightmost corner, unmarked as it is withing tolerance.
The views follows a similar trend:
Spoiler! Views over time
Image
The only difference here is the mass spike in views on 2019, I am not sure why, wouldn't think much about it, the way the forum is built even bots, not like me real bots, increase the number of views
Dates of events for views:
Spoiler!
For views Mean: 6810.541818181819 Std dev 3260.7195185661203
Found, 9 events in the views category
date views
2019-06-30 00:40:00 24189
2019-02-02 22:07:00 20555
2010-03-03 17:03:00 19945
2015-02-11 20:36:00 19537
2008-11-01 02:41:00 19248
2009-10-16 17:20:00 18056
2009-06-30 10:56:00 17375
2014-05-21 12:48:00 16776
2016-05-18 06:07:00 13974

Top event is Checking on the Prisoner(s) and The dungeons so either everyone really loves Maddie or bots, I am gonna go with bots.
The mos interesting thing here is the fact the interactions in the forum, either replies or views dropped drastically around 2010. Which is sort the end of the Basitin isles arc and i have no idea why. Maybe some of the older members like Gen. Bellhead or Mr Kellard or the mods could provide some context about that. but other than that replies and views have remained relatively constant within the years. Than being said In the last 5 years the number of replies has gone a bit down, but well within the mean and most likely corresponds with the loss of popularity of phpBB than with the comic or the community itself.

I do made similar graphs for the fan twokinds subreddit and the official twokinds twitter. But it is late already and this post is already too long by itself
There are three things that motivate people: Money, fear and love.
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Warrl
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#50 Post by Warrl »

The mos interesting thing here is the fact the interactions in the forum, either replies or views dropped drastically around 2010. Which is sort the end of the Basitin isles arc and i have no idea why.
I wonder if that happens to relate to frequency and regularity of updates.

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#51 Post by FuryoftheStars »

Warrl wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:23 am
The mos interesting thing here is the fact the interactions in the forum, either replies or views dropped drastically around 2010. Which is sort the end of the Basitin isles arc and i have no idea why.
I wonder if that happens to relate to frequency and regularity of updates.
That would be an interesting comparison....

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#52 Post by Alea »

Technic[Bot] wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:54 am Stuff
I had actually done the same thing a few weeks ago (although not to this extent) and one thing that struck me was while high-reply threads generally covered important events in the comic, high-view threads seemed to be almost completely random. For example, the two highest-viewed threads at the time I'm writing this are 1055: The Dungeons, 1071: Checking in on the prisoners, and 1072: Brutus, with 20000, 24000, and 20000 views respectively. None of these had reply counts that were particulary abnormal, with View:Reply ratios of over 400:1. I have some graphs that I could post, but I haven't the faintest idea how to upload images here.
Interestingly, the comics with the highest view:reply ratios (over 600:1!) both involve Reni, 1070: Different Lizard and 1075: Fitting Form.

As for the drop-off in replies after the Basitin Isles arc, I'd have to guess it's simply because the comic stopped being exciting; i.e. characters stopped dying every 10 seconds for people to mourn.

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#53 Post by Technic[Bot] »

According to my own data. Geez i sound like my advisor now. Comic went from bi-weekly to weekly around page 400 in 2007 smack in the middle of the basitins island arc. But drop off did not occur until middle 2010. So change in schedule seems like had no effect.
Alea wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:14 am
Technic[Bot] wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:54 am Stuff


I had actually done the same thing a few weeks ago (although not to this extent) and one thing that struck me was while high-reply threads generally covered important events in the comic, high-view threads seemed to be almost completely random. For example, the two highest-viewed threads at the time I'm writing this are 1055: The Dungeons, 1071: Checking in on the prisoners, and 1072: Brutus, with 20000, 24000, and 20000 views respectively. None of these had reply counts that were particulary abnormal, with View:Reply ratios of over 400:1. I have some graphs that I could post, but I haven't the faintest idea how to upload images here.
Interestingly, the comics with the highest view:reply ratios (over 600:1!) both involve Reni, 1070: Different Lizard and 1075: Fitting Form.

As for the drop-off in replies after the Basitin Isles arc, I'd have to guess it's simply because the comic stopped being exciting; i.e. characters stopped dying every 10 seconds for people to mourn.
Forum data does not go before December 2007, because it did not exist, so there is no way to compare with pre-basitin isles numbers. But I have to agree with Alea here the change between action packed where everyone is dying left and right to the low stakes deeply introspective boat season probably made a lot of people leave.
Regarding the views as I said before the number ticks if anything, human or robot queries that page. Forum has always had some bots, not me, issues so I guess some automated bot requested those particular pages over and over and over
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#54 Post by Alea »

Technic[Bot] wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:42 am
Regarding the views as I said before the number ticks if anything, human or robot queries that page. Forum has always had some bots, not me, issues so I guess some automated bot requested those particular pages over and over and over
I would believe that, if the pages requested were random or in sequence. Instead, it's three non-sequential pages that all feature maddie & karen in the dungeons. My best guess is that those threads were linked somewhere else (e.g. 4chan) who looked at it but commented on their own thread, which wouldn't show up in the archives.

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#55 Post by Technic[Bot] »

Alea wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:17 am
Technic[Bot] wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:42 am
Regarding the views as I said before the number ticks if anything, human or robot queries that page. Forum has always had some bots, not me, issues so I guess some automated bot requested those particular pages over and over and over
I would believe that, if the pages requested were random or in sequence. Instead, it's three non-sequential pages that all feature maddie & karen in the dungeons. My best guess is that those threads were linked somewhere else (e.g. 4chan) who looked at it but commented on their own thread, which wouldn't show up in the archives.
I am gonna stick with my bot theory, damn i sound just like my advisor now. Simply because i do not want to think why would all pages with Maddie in a dungeon be the most viewed by some random forum somewhere else.......
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#56 Post by aitaituo »

Technic[Bot] wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:42 amForum data does not go before December 2007, because it did not exist, so there is no way to compare with pre-basitin isles numbers.
Ahem, the old forum is archived here http://twokindscomic.com/ArchiveForum/ and goes back to 2004, at least.

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#57 Post by Technic[Bot] »

Guess my weekend got booked full now..
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#58 Post by Yastreb »

Interesting. When I compare the latest graphs to those on the first post of this thread, namely Google search trends, I don't see much correlation. Topic replies go down years before the search popularity.

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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#59 Post by Technic[Bot] »

Yastreb wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:26 am Interesting. When I compare the latest graphs to those on the first post of this thread, namely Google search trends, I don't see much correlation. Topic replies go down years before the search popularity.
Comic has consistently gained popularity over the years. Unfortunately the forum, the format as a whole, has gone the opposite side
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Re: TwoKinds [of] data

#60 Post by Technic[Bot] »

So I did not only do the forum. Unfortunately phpBB borads popularity has plummeted in recent history with the advent of twitter and reddit. So forum data gives and interesting look at the earlier history of the comic and its community. Not so much about its present. Fortunately there are APIs for other sites.

So now I present you with the same graph but done with reddit data. It consists of all, well most, post made on the r/Twokinds subreddit dealing with an specific comic page, the equivalent of ouf "Comic for " threads. Graphs show number of comments in each over time and also score. For old millennials like me reddit score consist on the sum number of points awarded by users to a post, each user can contribute with one positive, up vote, or negative ,down vote, per post.
Again X-axis is date, y axis is comments or score respectively. Events or extrema are marked with a yellow triangle. These are topic when comments/score exceeded 2 standard deviations from the mean, or in other words these are topics that got a lot more attention than the average. Mean is marked with solid orange line and the one standard deviation lines are marked with dashed orange.

As you can see data is much more recent, according to API subreddit was created January 20 2012, several years after the new forum. For reference at present day it has 4.6 thousand members.
Spoiler! comments over time
Image
Advantages of being so recent is that now all post include, in some way a title so it is easier to identify
Spoiler! Outstanding post
For comments Mean: 26.501165501165502 Std dev 20.56851153736537
Found, 9 events in the comments category
date title comments
2015-05-28 01:13:18 Tavern Daughter 119
2015-02-11 22:37:11 Chapter 17 Stranded - End 117
2014-12-05 03:28:36 Of Course, 'mortal danger'! I'm not tied up for fun... this time... 111
2014-10-09 06:04:10 Diplomacy 107
2021-02-07 20:56:52 Poisonous Friendship 91
2020-06-28 02:32:58 The Painting Pt 2 81
2015-12-10 05:30:52 Shorter Nap Than Nora's 78
2015-10-29 01:38:56 Battlefield Backstory 71
2015-08-27 02:05:26 Burning Bridges... and paperwork
Score is very interesting!
Spoiler! Score over time
Image
Spoiler! Top post by views
For score Mean: 35.28450106157113 Std dev 22.272771128440496
Found, 8 events in the score category
date title score
2021-01-03 01:57:27 Cow and Roast Chicken 103
2019-12-28 11:31:55 Why Not? 99
2020-02-08 19:12:40 Informal Proposal 93
2021-04-15 07:37:10 No hard feelings 93
2020-06-28 02:32:58 The Painting Pt 2 91
2020-08-30 04:11:05 Knock Knock 91
2020-05-13 22:23:42 Old Pain Best Left Buried 89
2020-04-12 23:07:08 Dragons and Stone 81
There is a strong interest, inf the form of lots of comments, in the post from 2014-2016 then interactions settle down. Which corresponds to chapter 17 stranded, the boat and 18 coming home, just arriving to Edinmire. Which is kinda the opposite of what happened here. The slow plot of the boat was actually quite appealing for the folks at reddit whereas when the cast disembarked and stuff began to get more action packed the number of comments dropped.
Folks over there are also fans of Maeve, the most commented post is her introduction to the comic, followed by catatonic Natani, that page tends to have a strong effect in people, and then Tied up Zen they have weird tastes... Funnily enough even with a lot more members at the reddit the average number of comments 26 is less that here, around 76.

The number of views tell a much more simple story, a growing community, over the years the score of a post has increased linearly and the highest scoring posts ( only comic posts. VV Mike getting lucky with Kat is the highest scoring post over there) are very recent, like the recent Brutus/Clovis debacle and also Sythe making his move. This is very likely influenced by reddit own natural, after all is a modern platform most zoomers understand unlike phpBB.

The last one is twitter but i need to double check my data, also I need to incorporate the archived forum to my previous graphs... It is a good think i did not have plans...
There are three things that motivate people: Money, fear and love.
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